We can start with the obviously in from the Big Six who aren’t leading their conference.
ACC: Duke*, Maryland*, Clemson, Florida State
Big 12: Kansas State, Missouri, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State
Big East: Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Marquette
Big 10: Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Pac 10: NOBODY (Cal is leading the conference, after all.)
SEC: Vanderbilt, Tennessee
Okay, so where we are here? 18 teams. So we’re down to 15 teams. And currently, we have three non Big Six at-large teams. (2 of Xavier, Temple, and Richmond, as well as BYU). That makes 12 teams.
1. Georgetown (They’re scuffling badly. They’ve very likely done enough to get there. Their strength of schedule is 1. And SOS is the strongest factor for bubble teams right now.
2. Virginia Tech (The computer numbers are terrible. But either they beat Georgia Tech and get 10-6 in the best conference ever. Or they get the 12 seed in the first round of the conference tournament.)
3. Louisville (They beat Syracuse and they’re an automatic lock. But they’ll get a bye into the second round of the tournament. And even if they don’t? Their SOS is currently 7.)
4. Rhode Island
5. San Diego State
–This is the sort of thing where there really is not much available on the Bubble. All these teams have decent resumes, and a team like Mississippi State is fringy with their strength of schedule and road striggles. I could see one of these three teams (Dayton) get left out. But that being said? There could be a problem if all three get left out.
7. Arizona State
9. Georgia Tech (A tough game versus Virginia Tech. But they’ve won all they were supposed to. They take back Virginia Tech on Saturday? They should be fine with one tournament win.)
10. Wake Forest (The loss to North Carolina is leaving them among the walking wounded. The final regular season game is versus Clemson. Not that the 6th place team of the ACC likely can’t get in, but they might be 7th.)
11. Ole Miss
13. Mississippi State
15. Notre Dame (The RPI is 61. They lost to Loyola Marymount in South Bend. And their strength of schedule isn’t nearly enough to overcome both without a deep run in the tournament.)
16. South Florida
18. Illinois (They have to beat Wisconsin twice or Wisconsin/Michigan State. Pretty much dead.)
19. Seton Hall
20. Minnesota (Would need a run to the Big 10 tournament finals to get in.)
I know it looks half-assed. But damnit. I’m bored. So hey. That’s okay.