The Grand National Championships

April 26, 2008

The Green Bay Packers Select: Brian Brohm (QB-Louisville)

Now while Nelson was a pick in a non-need area that I liked? Brohm was a pick in a kind of needy area that I don’t like so much.

He made his bones as a Petrino system quarterback. He’s not very mobile, and like our fearless starter, Brohm’s also injury prone. He doesn’t have the greatest arm strength, and has a negative gunslinger Q Rating. He’s got good football intelligence, and if he doesn’t have to see the field in 2008? He could develop into a Brad Johnson-Jeff Garcia type of game manager.

But he’s never gonna be special. No me gusta. 

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15 Comments »

  1. Gee whiz give the guy a chance.

    Comment by Saundra Morton — April 26, 2008 @ 8:20 pm |Reply

  2. I’ve seen him play. He has a negative gunslinger Q Rating. I stand by it.

    Comment by Andrew — April 26, 2008 @ 8:34 pm |Reply

  3. Ok Andrew, you’re the expert. I’m just a fan who wishes the best for Brian Brohm. Thanks

    Comment by Saundra Morton — April 27, 2008 @ 8:28 am |Reply

  4. so he doesnt have your “gunslinger” arm but the kid can throw the ball. He hold a record in the big east w/ passing over 300 yards for 11 games, he was ranked 2nd nationally in the nation for passing efficiency, he can run the offense like nobodys business, he is a great decision maker always finding the best person to get the ball to by remaining calm and taking his time. Say what you want but he will do great… he is young and no he will not be Brett Favre when he steps out on the field, he will be Brian Brohm. He has potential to be a great NFL quaterback, maybe not 2008, but one day. Give him a chance. I hope that you shove your foot in mouth. Go ahead and think that you know all but nobody is until game time!

    Comment by Kari — April 27, 2008 @ 12:39 pm |Reply

  5. Kari: I tell you what? If Brian Brohm goes to the Pro Bowl, I will bring this back and admit my error.

    And if I’m right, you don’t have to do anything.

    Love the e-mail address by the way.

    Comment by Andrew — April 27, 2008 @ 12:42 pm |Reply

  6. Not very mobile, eh?

    Combine 40 times:
    Ryan – 4.88
    Flacco – 4.78
    BROHM – 4.75

    Guess that kills that idea.

    Injury-prone? He made all but three starts during his soph., junior, and senior seasons at UL (he didn’t start his freshman year).

    And I may be wrong, but I’d prefer accuracy over “gunslinging”…Brohm completed over 65% of his passes in college. He threw 24 interceptions TOTAL (only five more than Mr. #3 Overall Matt Ryan threw THIS PAST SEASON ALONE).

    Brohm was the best quarterback available in this draft, and he fell to the Pack at 56…that’s about as good as it gets, IMO. I never understood all these people drinking the Matt Ryan / Joe Flacco Kool-Aid, but I think history will show that Kiper et al blew it in 08, just like they have MANY MANY MANY MANY times before. Brohm will be (and already IS) a hell of a good QB.

    Comment by Phil — April 28, 2008 @ 6:47 am |Reply

  7. You missed on the 40 times. Brohm didn’t run a 4.75 40.

    Injury prone? Three severe injuries in 4 years? He may not have missed many games, but torn ligaments in his knee, shoulder, and thumb are not something that engenders confidence.

    Gunslinging was a play on Favre’s leadership and intangibles. That’s something Mr. Brohm does not have. I never said Brohm’s arm was inaccurate, did I?

    But didn’t Mr. Brohm throw as many interceptions in his one non-Petrino season as the other three combined.

    And like I said before, I will eat the he’s never gonna be special words if he actually goes above and beyond my projection.

    See you at the Giacomini projection!

    Comment by Andrew — April 28, 2008 @ 7:27 am |Reply

  8. Fine, if you want to use NFL.COM’s times (which aren’t official either) it’s 4.83….still faster than either QB picked above him. The “mobility” knock on Brohm is fiction, plain and simple. Besides, a QB who stands tall and stubborn in the pocket is easier for an O-line to protect than some back-and-forth rolling ballerina.

    http://walterfootball.com/combine2008QB.php

    You can’t empirically describe “leadership and intangibles” nor can you project them. These things can’t be reasonably debated because they’re entirely subjective. One could argue that only missing three games as a result of “three severe injuries in 4 years” suggests Brohm is a gamer who can play with pain. You can’t say that for sure, but you also can’t NOT say it for sure.

    Did you watch any Louisville games over the past five years? I was a season ticket holder. Kragthorpe’s offense in 07 was VERY similar to Petrino’s in 06. The reason Brohm was intercepted so many times this past year is because the Cardinal defense was so poor that he had to consistently force deep balls to try to get the team back in games. He also went through several games this year without his top targets, Urrutia and Douglas. Over-reliance on deep balls thrown to second-string receivers = more picks.

    Comment by Phil — April 28, 2008 @ 8:31 am |Reply

  9. A QB who stands tall and stubborn in the pocket is also easier to hit than your “rolling ballerina.” And a man who has the danger of an injury issue who keeps getting hit?

    Fine, since we’re agreeing to disagree on leadership and intangibles, you’re shocked that I’d use Brohm’s interception total after you used it to denigrate Matt Ryan. Ryan threw 227 more passes than he did as a junior. That equals more picks as well. And Boston College never even had anybody close to a Urrutia, let alone Douglas to throw to.

    Also, system college quarterbacks have had minimal success in the pros. College offensive masters have had few quarterbacks become great. I think Neil Lomax was the last one.

    He’s a game manager type at best.

    Comment by Andrew — April 28, 2008 @ 9:13 am |Reply

  10. Anyone who gets hit has a danger of injury.

    All I can say about Ryan is that BC had a much less balanced attack than UL, causing him to HAVE to throw more passes.

    RYAN: 9313 yds. 1347 passes
    BROHM: 10775 yds. 1185 passes

    However, if my math is right, Brohm’s got a LOT more yardage in a LOT fewer passes.

    Average career yds. per attempt:

    RYAN: 6.61
    BROHM: 9.04

    So Brohm’s thrown less passes for MORE yardage. He’s thrown LONGER passes (i.e. more risky) but still is at a 24-37 advantage in picks. And he played in the Big East conference instead of the ACC. He won the Orange Bowl instead of the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

    All quarterbacks are “system” quarterbacks. Any offensive coordinator who doesn’t have a “system” isn’t “coordinating” anything. Manning is a system quarterback. Brady is a system quarterback. Favre and the Packers consciously adhered to a modified “West Coast Offense” this past season….pretty sure that’s a “system” too.

    Comment by Phil — April 28, 2008 @ 9:43 am |Reply

  11. Brohm’s had a much better supporting cast.

    Eric Shelton, Lionel Gates, J.R. Russell, Michael Bush, Jason Spitz, Urrutia, Barnridge, Douglas, and Giacomini were all offensive players drafted off of Brian Brohm teams. (Lest we forget the Dumervil’s, McCune’s, and Amobi Okoye’s of the world.) Brohm had skill position help that Ryan never had.

    Boston College since 2005

    Cherlius, Josh Marten, Josh Beekman, Jeremy Trueblood. 4 lineman. Matt Ryan took a team that was basically him and Cherlius (who was playing out of position) to the #2 ranking. That’s miracle working.

    And there’s a difference between college and the pros. Genius gets passed out like wine in college. Spurrier? Genius. Tedford? Genius. Kragthorpe? Offensive genius. Petrino? Offensive genius. Chip Kelly? Offensive genius. Those quarterbacks from those “systems”? Never good in the pros. (And yes I know that means there’s a logic to the Packers selecting Brohm. I never questioned that.)

    And if a team with minimal talent would have tried to control the ball with shorter perceived less risky passes, that means they’d have fewer YPA. And if a team had receivers of skill? They’d be more willing to open up the passing game.

    Also, the Big East conference was really only two teams Brohm’s sophmore year and three teams his junior year. It’s pretty easy to go and crush the Syracuses of the world when you’ve got draftable talent sourrounding you.

    He fell off his senior year when he had to put the team on his back and he got challenged every other week. No magical Orange Bowl run. No mediocre Champs Sports Bowl run. Not even an at-large berth to the New Orelans Bowl.

    Also I LIKE how you DECIDED to CAPITALIZE certain words as if your POINT that BROHM put up better statistics would be LOST on its own, without REGARD for the FACT that doing this TAKES AWAY from your point.

    I mean, if statistics equaled draftability, why did nobody take a shot on that Paul Smith or Danny Woodhead?

    Comment by Andrew — April 28, 2008 @ 11:04 am |Reply

  12. Brohm did NOT fall off his senior year. It was his best statistical season at UL. The TEAM fell off, because there was no defense to speak of. Period. It doesn’t matter if Brohm led the team to 40 points every weekend if the D gave up 45-50 (which they did). A QB can’t play both sides of the ball. He’s as responsible for losing 50-40 games as he is for global warming. For that matter, Douglas and Urrutia…well, not as good as people gave them credit for. Douglas was the NCAA equivalent of Braylon Edwards. If the pass hit him between the numbers, he dropped it. If it required a 10-yard circus dive, then he might come up with it. Dumervil, Okoye and McCune had no impact on Brohm’s performance…they helped the TEAM win.

    BC ranked #2 in the country was a joke, and almost everybody not named Mel Kiper knew it. Ryan’s no miracle, he’s just a guy who throws the ball a LOT…kind of like the Russell Branyans or Brian Giles of the world who swing at every pitch as hard as they can, and manage to run into 30 home runs a year. BC had a strongish team, playing against weak competition…and oh, yeah, Ryan wasn’t on the radar at all until the ESPN hype machine jumped on him this year.

    I also like how since you have no argument to counter the actual points I’ve been making, you decide to jump on my syntax. Forgive me for clarifying emphasis. By my count there are five capitalized words in my previous post…far from your inane exaggeration. I bow to you, O Mighty Mountain Out of a Molehill Man.

    Brohm is by far the best QB in the 08 draft class. His record shows it. His stats show it. How can a guy be ranked the top quarterback in the country – a certain top-5 pick at the beginning of the season – have his best statistical season of his career, and fall out of the first round? All it takes is a porous, young defense, a couple of one-year wonders playing in crappy conferences (Ryan, Flacco) and a cheating UConn return man.

    Comment by Phil — April 28, 2008 @ 11:51 am |Reply

  13. This is internet, serious business, right?

    Okay. Brian Giles isn’t a three true outcomes guy. And there’s always an upside guy who gets jumped on in the senior year.(Remember JaMarcus Russell or Alex Smith?) It always happens.

    And I have made counters. You just weren’t up on them. See? His QB Rating was his worst as a collegian. His yards per attempt? Worst as a full-time starter.

    His last five collegiate games? 107-176 (61%) 7 TD/8 INT

    He wasn’t playing Murray State or Middle Tennessee State anymore and he got shook.

    Comment by Andrew — April 28, 2008 @ 12:08 pm |Reply

  14. I just want to add some comments about his team mates just so we are all clear. I have not missed one U of L football game in the last 6 years… Brian Brohm did play with some outstanding guys but in this last season he really didnt. If we are going to talk about falling off the wagon, U of L’s defense sucked… they were so bad that Syracuse (worst football team in the big east) were scoring on them like they were playing joe schmos. His offensive team mates were not that big of a help either. Urrutia lost it, he couldnt catch a pass for crap all season. Douglas was the go to man but the opposing team figured that out all too quick and were on him like stink on shit. Patrick Carter is another good player but he was notorious for butter fingers.It was not that U of L was playing bigger and better teams either… they had almost the exact same schedule in 06 season and 05 season. It was the fact that there was a new coach with a way different technique than Petrino. I will tell you the coaching was the downfall of his senior year, so bad in fact that the end of the season Kragthorpe fired all the defensive coordinators, and moved many people around that worked with the offense as well. He also apologized for the lack there of good coaching and took 100% responsibility of why games failed because he knew he had excellent talent on his hands with many of the players. You can not compare his sophomore and junior year to his senior year… shit happened that effected that team as a whole… and yes we have to remember that football is a team sport and one player can not be rasponsible for everyone, look at statistics… if you could watch any games from season 07 and 06 watch them. Realize how different the programs worked.

    Comment by kari — April 28, 2008 @ 3:56 pm |Reply

  15. Amen, Kari.

    And Andrew, QB rating is the single most useless and problematic statistic in football.

    Comment by Phil — April 29, 2008 @ 7:31 am |Reply


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