We’re Two Days Away From the Deadline…

And while some of the big dominoes still have room to fall, we have to discuss where we are, right? Who’s won, who’s lost, and who’s yet to make a stand.

Who’s won?

Philadelphia: They’ve acquired Cliff Lee and a great 4th outfielder in Ben Fransisco and they did not have to give up any of the pieces that stopped them from committing to Roy Halladay. Now I like Carrasco, and Marson has great hitting potential, but they were able to keep Michael Taylor and J.A. Happ as well as Kyle Drabek. It’s the piece they needed, and they didn’t have to give up anything.

Cleveland: At present, they’ve infused themselves with seven top ten prospects from three pretty good systems. Jason Knapp is in A-Ball and Jason Donald has pretty well sucked this year, but for a guy that was going to get squeezed out and a guy they couldn’t afford? They got a B+ worth of value. And when you add in the two power relievers they got for DeRosa and Scott Barnes, an already good system gets better. They may be waiting for next year, but there’s hope in Cleveland.

Who’s lost?

San Fransisco: Long term, my gut says they’ve made a huge terrible mistake. Not to say that the offense they have won’t get better because of Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez, but come on. Tim Alderson is kicking ass in Double-A and Scott Barnes looks like he’s going to be goods. And is it that going to be that big of an upgrade over Travis Ishikawa and Eugenio Velez? No. Brian Sabean is such an idiot.

Somewhere in the Middle?

Seattle: I’d lean toward this being a loss. If you’re going to move to a sell, you need to start playing your prospects. I mean, Ryan Langerhans is a bad stopgap. A real bad one. To keep Langerhans and dump Wladimir Balentin for a junkball reliever? Bad sauce.

And cosidering the Mariners catching situation, I would be baffled by dealing Jeff Clement. But Ian Snell was the best player in the deal by far. I mean, Jack Wilson sucks, but the Pirates are paying some salary. And odds are one of the three pitchers the Pirates will get there? But they are bottom third prospects in a bad organization. My money’s on Brett Lorin.

And Dan Cortes is bound to find the plate eventually, right?

Pittsburgh: Getting Lastings Milledge? Good. Getting Tim Alderson? Good. The Ian Snell trade? Meh. They have no room for Jeff Clement. And outside of Lorin? There’s nobody that interests me. So, B-.

I hate Jarrod Washburn.

I just do. He has not committed injustice toward me in any form or fashion. Even at his worst? He has never been outright awful. He’s just overrated. Especially this season.

Suffice it to say? He’s in the middle of a contract drive. Luck is on his side. And he is pitching out of his mind. The team that acquires him will not be getting a pitcher who has an under three ERA. They will be getting someone whose ERA will rise. I don’t even care that there will be an AL-NL swing, I will be right stunned if he ends the year with an ERA below three. Make it 3.30.

For Milwaukee? Giving up Alcides Escobar for him would be downright stupid. And I like Branden Morrow. He has a chance to have a run of closer dominance for a good 4-6 years. But asking him to start is the wrong thing to do. He doesn’t have the third pitch.

So, I would honestly wait. The Deadline’s Friday. The Brewers fans have a sparring partner for these next four days. If disaster strikes, stand pat. If they run the table? Let’s see if we can’t get Balentien and another prospect thrown in. I like Jharmidy DeJesus.

That’s a name you know.

Cold Chilling at the Halladay Inn

Let me propose something. Let me propose the premise that J.P. Riccardi is about to outhink himself on the Roy Halladay front. He wants the moon and the stars coming back in return. And rightfully so. You get a pitcher of Halladay’s caliber coming back for 2010.

That being said? He’s treading dangerous ground. Why? Because he’s letting offers pass that many would consider strong hauls for the pitcher. Philly has an offer of J.A. Happ, Michael Taylor, Carlos Carrasco, and Jason Donald. Put this another way.

J.A. Happ is a pitcher who’s been strong in a hitters park. Michael Taylor killed pitchers dead in his half-season of AA. Carrasco? He’s had to deal with a .330 BABIP and bad luck with homers. And Jason Donald is struggling after coming back from an injury.

It’s not a 12 out of 10 in terms of the highway robbery scale, but Michael Taylor’s coming quickly and coming strong. Happ would be moving to a pitchers park, which would help offset any changes in talent. Carrasco is having a fluky season of bad luck. And Jason Donald is kind of sucky this year, but that’s beside the point.

The point is, Riccardi is not going to get anywhere near a haul that he could get this season if he decides that he’s going to wait until next year. The Indians got two players who might be worth a damn for Sabathia. If he’s going to wait for someone to blink, he may be sorely mistaken.

And he may lose out on a real chance to help for the future because of it.

The Milwaukee Bucks: 1080p Black and White Basketball.

It seems as if the Milwaukee Bucks are in a deep state of disunity. You have a team that seems to keep grabbing pieces for a seven seconds or less offense. I mean you could get together a five of Sessions/Jennings, Meeks/Weems, Mbah a Moute, Alexander, and Amir Johnson and run another team out of the gym.

John Hammond has brought a lot of interesting pieces together in an effort to restart the Bucks. And this has made the Bucks offseason one that you cannot put a letter grade on by October. There are a lot of pieces, and if we had a digital coach? These pieces would be a spectacular fit. That’s the other problem.

Scott Skiles loves Luke Ridnour. It’s annoying on so many levels. Scott Skiles will probably start Bruce Bowen and ride Kurt Thomas until he inevitably breaks down. I mean, look at all the pieces the Bulls had that degenerated under the Skiles regime. You’ve got that whole thing to worry about.

But you know what? We’re not done. There’s a long time between now and training camp. Some would say we need to waive Weems to get a shot at Sessions. Some would say we need to waive Bowen and trade Ridnour. Some are saying we’re going to let Sessions walk. I’ll be honest, I want to like this. I’m talking myself into this.

But there’s still moves to be made or not made. I’m not going to walk away on this team just yet. But I’m still tentative as to bless this mess.

But we could see a ten game winning streak the moment Scott Skiles gets fired this offseason.

In Doug We Trust…

The news of today, despite the split series with the Reds is a big trade with the Diamondbacks. The Brewers now welcome Felipe Lopez. And this is a trade with no downside until 2013. I love this trade for the Brewers, I want you to love it too.

Here’s why this deal is tremendous.

1) The Brewers don’t give up a high impact prospect.

I like Cole Gillespie. He has a Mark Kotsayish vibe about him as someone who plays above his tools. But in his first exposure to Triple-A? He’s hitting .242. And while Roque Mercedes is killing it in the Florida State League with a closers set of weapons, it’s a bullpen guy in class A. You see all sorts of strange happen with relievers who hit double-A for the first time. See: Omar Aguilar.

2) Felipe Lopez is at his best in September and beyond…

Traditionally, Felipe Lopez has been a better second half hitter than a first half hitter. Post All-star break, his OPS is 51 points higher. This moves him from a rich man’s Alex Cintron into something worthwhile. But he’s shown an ability to get hot in September. Last month of the season? Felipe’s gone off for a .299/.362/.438 line. Not to say lock it down by any stretch, but that is most definitely hope we can believe in.

3) The Brewers infield situation gets interesting.

For several reasons. One, Craig Counsell’s nigh miraculous .280 start to the season loses the sword of damocles aspect of his final 2007-2008 lines. Two? All of the sudden, the Brewers would have to consider J.J. Hardy available if they’re going to go after a starter. Three? The Billy Hall threat level is at noon.

Dumb rumor I just made up. Challege trade with Boston. Billy Hall for Julio Lugo.

Anyway, I love this deal. Blueberry Johnson style.

Halladay…Celebrate.

That’s what some lazy punster of a headline writer will say if and when Roy Halladay gets traded. Because his will be the game changer deal of the free agency. So, because we can’t trust J.P. Riccardi to make a good decision? I will tell you what teams would be the best fits.

5. Milwaukee

The Brewers have interesting pieces, but with such a dearth of pitching prospects and the double and triple swearing that Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel are untouchable and the fact that you would just add to an outfield logjam with Corey Hart, I just don’t see them developing a package to wrest Halladay.

4. Los Angeles Angels
Best Likely Package: Peter Bourjos, Brandon Wood, and Jose Arrendondo

Why they would be a good fit? Because these are propsects who have a tremendous pedigree. Wood and Arrendondo would be instant big league impact, and Bourjos would be ready for when Wells and or Rios would be gone.
Why would they not? Because for an organization that had such a wide and varied array of super prospects in the middle of the decade? The impact has proven to be minimal.

3. Boston
Best Likely Package: Clay Buchholz, Manny Delacarmen, and Lars Anderson

Why they would they be a good fit? Because the only piece that the Sox truly might miss here is Lars Anderson. If they trusted Buchholz, he’d be a big leaguer right now. And many in Boston like Delacarmen but many also feel his best chance is somewhere else. So despite the division issue, they can make a deal.
Why they would not? The division thing. If the Jays contend in 2010? Halladay will stop them. And rumors out of St. Louis are that no prospect is off the table. And there are some in the Sox have no interest.

2. Philadelphia
Best Likely Package: Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, and Michael Taylor

Why would they be a good fit? Jason Donald may have been off to a bad start in Triple-A, but injury explains that. And Carlos Carrasco is rallying in triple-A. That means two instant starters. Michael Taylor causes a bit of a logjam, but they have time to swing a deal if there’s a problem.
Why they would not? The Phillies don’t have a third prospect with the right mixture of skill and expendability. They could get another catching prospect or a Low-A dude with tools. But they would have to part with a Drabek or a Taylor to get Halladay.

1. St. Louis
Best Likely Package: Brett Wallace, Daryl Jones, Jason Motte, and Jess Todd

Why they would be a good fit? Because Brett Wallace is a professional hitter, and Daryl Jones reminds me a lot of Michael Brantley. Jason Motte is a power arm who should close by 2010. And if he can’t? Jess Todd can. I know the story may be apocryphal, but the Cardinals really want Halladay.
Why they would not? Two possibilities. The DeRosa trade may mean a piece that the Jays would want would be going to Cleveland. Two, someone else blows them away with an offer. The Phillies can knock their block off prospect-wise and the Rangers could swing for the fences, damn the owners financial scenario.

So, will we see Halladay get dealt? Yes. Will it make me feel bad? Very likely. But hey, that’s how it goes in the Wild Wild West.

Orlando just screwed up…

Vince Carter is not so much of a cancer. But he’s happier being the man on a 30 win team. Orlando is in no way shape or form a 30 win team. But is this as bad as the last time the Nets traded a video game cover sort of superstar? No.

Three reasons why.

1) Rafer Alston is the sort of player who needs to start to be effective.

He’s not going to oust Devin Harris from the starting role. And he will not be happy by this turn of events. Skip to my Lou needs run to be happy.

2) Courtney Lee is not as good as Vince Carter.

Not to say that Lee isn’t going to be good. But Devin Harris was already safely better than Kidd. Lee will merely have to wait a couple of years.

3) Ryan Anderson can shoot the three.

And he’s 6’10″, even if Hedo does his work somewhere else? There is a chance that Ryan Anderson can bring a B-grade amount of replacement to the Turk. Honestly, there’s a decent regard for Anderson and he will do some things.

But Vince Carter doesn’t play hero. He doesn’t play final piece. The chemistry’s going to smash into a wall.

Rod Thorn, man. Freaking stealthy.

UPDATE: HEIR TO BEEF JERKY FORTUNE FLIPPED FOR JARVIS VANARDO CLONE!

It’s a small deal, but it’s a deal you have to like. Fabricio Oberto is a 34 year-old Argentinean Back-Up Center. Amir Johnson is a 4 who makes big bold plays. His frame and game remind me of the delightful Mississippi State low-post presence that is Jarvis Vanardo. And the Bucks got that for nothing.

Awesome. Simply awesome.

The Bucks now have the Heir to a beef jerky fortune.

Okay, the Argentinean back-up center isn’t really a part of the frito-lay family. And in terms of direct value? This is about 30 cents on the dollar for RJ. I mean, Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas and Fabricio?

Outside of crippling the Spurs frontcourt depth? They win the deal. Great value for a cheap price. They can get a Chuck Hayes 4 in the draft and refill other picks that way.

But as for the Bucks? This is likely step one. They can make other moves. (Redd/Ridnour for T-Mac?) But if this move allows the Bucks to keep Ramon and Villy? Then it’s a win. It doesn’t matter if the Bucks go 21-61. They can’t keep trying to be a seven seed.

That doesn’t help anybody. You need a plan. You can’t exist as a seven seed.

Free Antwan Jamison to a good home…

Image via Wikipedia

Jonathan Givony is reporting that the Wizards are shopping Antwan Jamison. And they do not want much in return. This is interesting because the Cavaliers have the expiring contracts to make such a deal worthwhile for both sides. Givony says that a package of Ben Wallace (who’s now best known as a sketch character on the Disciples of Clyde Podcast) and Sasha Pavlovic (who defends like he’s a zombie on rollerskates), can be a great match for a deal (if the Wizards throw in Mike James) And I’m sure that there would be a pick at 30 or 45 involved, to get the Wizards a little more.

Here’s why the deal is so great for the Cavs. In a world where the undersized four that can hit the three was a linchpin of NBA Finals runs for both the Magic as well as the Lakers? Even a past-30 Antwan can bring a lot to the table. He’s not too far removed from being a 20 and 10 player. A LeBron-Mo-Antwan triad has some definite value.

And the Wizards can use the extra pick at 30 to use their pick at five for Jordan Hill. Why? Because Patty Mills can be theirs if they want to trade up, or maybe even if they stay at 30. That means they can get their shit together as the Gilbert Arenas albatross keeps rearing its ugly head.

Sorry. Cheap shot. I will move on.