Break the Brewers DOOOOOOOOOOOOWN.

Okay, I napped a little longer than expected. Sorry about that. But here’s something to make up for it.

The Brewers are hot. Red hot. In fact, these are the days that make up for scouring the six-year free agent wires and saying…”Oooh, I think Carlos Mendoza would be a nice fit.” I’ll have more on that later.

But we will break down the Brewers into 4 categories…

The Good
1) Rickie Weeks (If he stays healthy, he might have a chance at a 30 home run season. He has stopped running though, so for fantasy purposes you may want to consider selling.)
2) Craig Counsell (For a guy who was essentially ballast during his time in Milwaukee, he does deserve propers for his start. .328/.412/.466)
3) Trevor Hoffman (Milwaukee is in love with Trevor Hoffman. I know it’s in eight games, but Eric Gagne was so bad last season. So, so bad.)
4) Mark DiFelice (This is why you need a smart GM. Overpaying for middle relievers is ridiculous when you can pluck a dude out of AAA and say hey, 31 year old who hasn’t pitched before? You got this.)
5) Mike Cameron (If this be a contract drive? Let the gods allow him to turn a full on Adrian Beltre season.)
6) Billy Hall (For being the lefty masher in the soft platoon, he’s doing very well. Better than 2007 or 2008 to be sure.)
7) Ryan Braun (Nobody expects to have an OPS over 1.000. Braun does right now. He’s helping!)
8) Mitch Stetter (In terms of ERA+, you have to be happy with what he’s done. His tendency to walk hitters is a worrying thing.)

The expected
1) J.J. Hardy (The dude’s always been streaky. And it’s too early to call it a slump yet. He’s been bad for half-seasons at a time. This too shall pass.
2) Dave Bush (His ERA will always be a touch higher than his command indicates, but he’s been solid this season.
3) Braden Looper (An innings eater with an ERA in the 4′s is what the Brewers paid for, and it is what the Brewers have received.)
4) Todd Coffey (In terms of solid middle relief? He’s been actually what you expected. His BAbip is .353, his luck will even out.)
5) Seth McClung (But not in a good way. He’s walked more batters than he’s struck out. He’s allowed 28 baserunners in 17 innings. Maybe he was too much a product of the Mike Maddux whisperer.)
6) Mike Rivera (Passable offense when he plays, but he does not play often enough.)
7) Yovani Gallardo (Lost in Grienkemania was the fact that Yovani has developed into an ace. Stay healthy. Please. You’re awesome when you do.)

The bad
1) Manny Parra (I have to worry if Ned hurt him by overworking him in 2008. When he loses the plate it’s usually a signal that he has something deeper wrong with him. I’m hopeful that this is just a bad streak. But I can’t not consider the injury question. He’s a Brewer pitching prospect.)
2) Corey Hart (He’s also streaky. But because I want in my heart of hearts the Kentucky Ninja to be a superstar? I am disappointed. He decided to be called Corey Hart. That’s the decision of a man with swagger.)
3) Carlos Villanueva (He always struggles in April. And I keep expecting him to break through to superstar levels, because he can go months at a time as a stud. He’s just bad long enough to keep his stats down.)
4) The Bench (With what Casey McGheehee and Chris Duffy have done? Mat Gamel’s infusion couldn’t have come at a better time.)

Just release him already
1) Jeff Suppan (I know, it’s still only seven starts, but the Brewers trendline is scary bad. He’s walking one more batter per 9 innings, he’s on pace to allow one more dinger per 9 innings. His ERA+ is at the point where he was trying to face down the next Maddux claims. Pitchers die off earlier than 34, and if you’re a finesse pitcher? The line is just that much thinner.)
2) Jason Kendall (Average in the .220′s. 4 out of 5 runners stealing bases on him as steals come back into the playbook. If he didn’t take a walk once in a while, he would be completely useless.)
3) Jorge Julio (Electric arms don’t always translate. Let someone else take their shot.)
4) Brad Nelson (Outrighted to Triple-A. So. Thanks.)

Like I said, 87 wins can win the NL Central this year. And while there will be some regression to the mean, you have to wonder if the Brewers may not have another year of October Baseball. I love it.

When Disaster Strikes…

Is not just the name of the seminal Busta Rhymes album. It could be what happens to the Brewers in these next few months. I mean, let me tell you a story of what could happen.

A. The Brewers miss the playoffs. This means the player to be named later in the Sabathia trade will be the Brewers choice, and likely a man of no consequence.

B. The Yankees cull Bobby Abreu and Carl Pavano from the payroll, and use the balance to take C.C. Sabathia as the Angels sleep.

C. Ed Wade does his best Jerry Jones and his boy Sheetsie gets 5 years and 70 million.

D. The Brewers do not want to be too splashy in terms of free agency. It’s a big year, but the Brewers aren’t gonna try and get above 80 million dollars if they don’t have to.

And let’s be honest, I am going to make estimates based on precedent and other details in terms of contract. But the fundamentals will be sound.

And so? A journey of a wannabe GM begins…now.

Returning Payroll: Here’s where it begins. What cost the Brewers about 35.5 million in 2008 is going to become prohibitively expensive. Fielder starts arbitration, Suppan, Hall, J.J. Hardy, Bush, Corey Hart and maybe even the versatility of the Ginger McClung will all receive million dollar-plus raises. You aren’t going to see it double, but 26.5 million dollars later? The Brewers stand at 62 million dollars.

Options exercised? CF Mike Cameron ($10,000,000 +3 million dollars from 2008); INF Craig Counsell ($3,400,000 +600 thousand dollars from 2008 and it hurts because he sucks.)

Free Agents Re-Signed? LOOGY Brian Shouse ($2,200,000 +200 thousand dollars from 2008); OF Gabe Kapler ($1,000,000 +200 thousand dollars from 2008); 3B Russell Branyan ($750,000 +350 thousand dollars from 2008).

So now we stand at $66,200,000. If the Brewers sign no other free agents, here’s your 25-man roster.

C- Jason Kendall
C- Mike Rivera
1B- Prince Fielder
2B- Rickie Weeks
3B- Russell Branyan
SS- J. J. Hardy
IF- Billy Hall
IF- Craig Counsell
LF- Ryan Braun
CF- Mike Cameron
RF- Corey Hart
OF- Gabe Kapler
OF- Tony Gwynn

SP- Manny Parra
SP- Yovani Gallardo
SP- Jeff Suppan
SP- Dave Bush
SP- Seth McClung

RP- Mark DiFelice
RP- Luis Pena
RP- Tim Dillard
RP- Brian Shouse
RP- Carlos Villanueva
RP- David Riske

CL- Salomon Torres

So what do the Brewers need? Obvious need is obvious. Pitching. And as for that I do have a premise as to how the Brewers can generate some pitching.

Trade Prince Fielder

I know, it sounds crazy. But he’s still team controlled for another couple of years, and with Scott Boras in tow, there’s no chance that he’ll give Milwaukee a year of his Free Agency for an extension. So, expect the Brewers to quietly shop Fielder this offseason. A likely scenario? The Angels lose Teixera via Free Agency. The Brewers quietly swoop in and get a young starter from the Angels for Fielder. We’ll call him Joe saunders. So we’ll move Gamel to first base and we’ll do the Bruss Brall at third.

So now where are we? 23.8 million dollars.

Move #1: Sign Juan Cruz (3 years/9 million dollars)

Juan Cruz is a power pitcher. Juan Cruz generates a lot of strike outs. He can have his issues with lefties, however? He is a righty killer. I think his issues with lefthanders may keep his price down, but a savvy manager of bullpens can keep him as an ace 7th inning guy/righty killer.

Move #2: Sign Bartolo Colon (1 year/1.25 million Team option for 2010 at 2 million)

But with a twist. You make Bartolo Colon a middle reliever/closer candidate. His limited time as a Red Sock last year shows that he has an ability to pitch. But as a starter he’ll fall apart. So, you sign him as a middle reliever with incentive bonuses and hope he’s another Eckersley or Kerry Wood.

Move #3: Three million dollars for veteran starting pitcher reclamation projects.

There are plenty of options in the injured starter who showed talents previously. Obvious Mark Prior is obvious. But here’s what I’m thinking. Show me something in a Chris Capuano, a Mark Mulder, and a Russ Ortiz and hope one of them hit.

Move #4 Sign Joe Nathan (3 years/39 million dollars)

Perhaps this is colored by yesterdays taint punch of a collapse, but Joe Nathan may actually prove to have some value in the new economy. The Brewers are going to be contenders, or at the very least close to contention, jumping on the Joe Nathan bandwagon with all deliberate speed while everybody’s all fired up for the twisted steel and sex appeal of Fransisco Rodriguez? You can get good value.

And in these five moves? Your Milwaukee Brewers are ready for battle in 2009.

New 2009 Roster?

C- Kendall
C- Rivera
1B- Mat Gamel
2B- Weeks
3B- Branyan
SS- Hardy
IF- Hall
IF- Counsell
LF- Braun
CF- Cameron
RF- Hart
OF- Kapler
OF- Gwynn

SP- Parra
SP- Gallardo
SP- Suppan
SP- Bush
SP- McClung/Russ Ortiz/Chris Capuano/Mark Mulder

RP- Bartolo Colon
RP- Juan Cruz
RP- Brian Shouse
RP- Salomon Torres
RP- Carlos Villanueva
RP- David Riske

CL- Joe Nathan

And with JJ Hardy, Mike Cameron, and Jason Kendall as trade bait as some of the Huntsville 8 show off their readiness? It’s a beautiful thing.

I know that the results of a Baseball series are apocryphal…

And that it only matters in October what goes down between two teams. That being said? This Brewers-Mets series is a playoff preview, as the loser of the NL Central Race will get the winner of the NL East. And to see that your Milwaukee Brewers have lost two straight against the Mets because the Bullpen had Eric Gagne and the offense couldn’t get that one last run they needed to cross the plate.

Stop this. Stop this now.

This was supposed to be a cruise into October. I do not want an actual race unless the Brewers threaten the Cubs.

Reasons why Ned Yost is an idiot…

You have Jason Kendall, who’s not a great catcher in many metrics. And you’ve played him every day since the All-Star break. And did I mention he sucks? Because he does.

And you have a back-up who’s collecting dust. Mike Rivera. A little lesser on defense. But his offense is actually good. He brings more than a groundout to the table.

Why am I mentioning this? Because Mike Rivera just saved Eric Gagne’s shitty ass.

It’s 4-4. And Torres just walked a dude.