Listen, here’s the thing about brackets…

If your pool is weighted, the upset is essentially meaningless. So you get a point for picking Winthrop over Notre Dame. It means nothing if you lose two of your final four teams in the second round.

But, if you want a good team for a home run swing? I have one for you. You may think me crazy, but dig this.

Boise State is your deep sleeper for the Sweet 16.

Really. The Broncos are your best chance for a miracle second week appearance. Why?

1) They are Senior Dominated.

The Broncos start four mature upperclassman. After all, how could they fade losing a double-digit lead to go into the first overtime and an unnecessary hack by Anthony Thomas to keep the game alive going into the second to pull away in the third overtime and win at New Mexico State? That right there shows a goodly sum of mental toughness.

2) Road Warriors

Of all the 12-15 seeds in the Tournament, the Broncos are 12-3 on the road. That right there? The best record of all the Cinderella potentials. You want your underdogs to be battle tested and ready for war. And a solid .800 winning percentage on the road is more than enough in terms of road skill.

3) Frontcourt Domination

There are some who would say that you want good experienced guardplay in your cinderella. Wrong. You want good solid balance. But if balance is something that you cannot get? The frontcourt is what you want. While a strong backcourt can keep you in a game, a strong frontcourt has always put the underdogs over the top. Boise State has three awesome forwards in Reggie Larry, Matt Nelson, and Terry Tiedeman leading the way to 72.6% of the scoring.

4) A fast-pace.

It seems logical that you might want your boys to play a slow, patient, bang it down low style of offense. Limiting posessions limits your opponent’s chances of making sure yah mo b in it with two minutes left. But speed thrills. You want to run it up and down the court. The forward dominated teams that run, get the duke more than the plodders. If you can score? Life is good. Boise State put up nearly 85 a game this year.

Now, I understand why you’re skeptical. They’re playing Louisville. Louisville plays an athletic match-up zone. They have everybody healthy.

HOWEVER!

Boise State has four legitimate three point threats. Larry and Tiedeman join guard Matt Basucher and reserve forward Matt Noonan as 40%+ three point shooters. If they get rolling from beyond the arc, Pitino might have to play Boise State’s game. 

Of course, if Louisville can squash Anthony Thomas in the press? The question is moot. But if they shock the world? They will win their second round game. St. Joe’s does not have a good defense, and the Boise State three could eat Ahmad Nivins alive. And while we have those whom are loyal to Oklahoma hoop, even they have to admit that their two frontcourt stars are walking wounded. Boise State can beat them very easily.

Yes. Boise State has the sort of game that translates to the Big Dance, and while I am far out on the limb for game one, you can take the Broncos to the Sweet 16 if they win on Friday.

Calling it now. Boise State is your deep sleeper.